Week 16 Monday Night Colts-49ers: Advanced Review
The 49ers offense is clicking at just the right time, while the Colts season is officially over
The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
Find previous advanced reviews here
** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
IND vs SF (-5.5)
The San Francisco 49ers offense is hitting high gear just in time for the postseason, throttling the Indianapolis Colts defense on the way to a 48-27 victory. The adjusted scores didn’t see it as that dominant of a win, primarily because of the extra points the 49ers put on the board from a pick-6 (+10.6 EPA) and fumble recovery on a kickoff (+5.9 EPA) that led to a touchdown.
The Colts offense also underperformed its strong 48% offensive success rate, though a lower-ceiling attack should be expected with 44-year-old quarterback now running the show.
The 49ers are currently one game behind the Seattle Seahawks in the divisional, while tied in record with the Los Angeles Rams, but owning the tiebreaker. The 49ers play the Chicago Bears in Week 17, then face the Seahawks at home to end the regular season. If the 49ers win-out, they’ll have the No. 1 seed in the NFC. If they lose to the Seahawks, they’re locked into a Wild Card slot. If they beat the Seahawks and lose against the Bears, they’ll need the Seahawks to lose in Week 17 against the Carolina Panthers, plus the Rams to lose one of their two remaining games against the Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals.
The 49ers had an efficient and very balanced attack, hitting above the 90th percentiles for dropback and designed run EPA per play, with a 57/43 split between called dropbacks and runs. Christian McCaffrey added +2.9 EPA on 21 designed runs (117 yards, 5.6 YPC). George Kittle has been on a tear recently, reminding the league that he’s one of the most valuable receiving options, not just among tight ends. Kittle’s eight targets generated +9.8 EPA for the 49ers, with emerging force Jauan Jennings adding another +9.1 EPA on only six targets.
The Colts running offense has been stuck in the mud since the Daniel Jones injury, in this game, while admittedly trailing severely and unable to “establish the run,” Jonathan Taylor ran for 46 yards on 16 carries. Taylor hasn’t had a 100-yard game since Week 10 against the Atlanta Falcons. Following that game, Taylor was on pace for nearly 2,000 yards (1936, to be exact), and is now sitting at fewer than 1,500 with only two games remaining.
Philip Rivers wasn’t bad, but he’s also not the answer for a team that likely needed extraordinary performance at quarterback to get into the playoffs. Rivers has provided a floor, but that hasn’t been good enough to win with rushing and defensive struggles.
TD-INT ratio worshippers will love Brock Purdy’s 5-to-0 in this game. Purdy doesn’t have the volume and play-time this year to be considered for things like MVP or All-Pro selections, but his EPA efficiency to outstanding, leading the NFL if you lower the play-involvement threshold to 250 (+0.31 to Jordan Love’s +0.29 and Drake Maye at +0.27).
