Week 15 Sunday, Early Window: Advanced Reviews

Late-game heroics from Joe Flacco have the Browns on the path to the playoffs, while the Chiefs get it done in mediocre fashion

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

CAR-ATL

There was almost 30% playoff probability leverage in this game for the Falcons, and their loss drops their chance to about 10%, with a handful of games still to be decided in Week 15 as of this post’s writing. It was an awful offensive showing for both teams, the normal state of affairs for the Panthers, and a roughly every-other-week occurrence for the Falcons.

The 6-8 Falcons basically need to win out (IND, @CHI, @NO), and get a little help, to make the postseason at this point. I wouldn’t carve his headstone just yet, but a can’t imagine Arthur Smith making to the fourth year of the rebuild in 2024, without a viable path to good quarterback play. In particular this loss stings, facing the league’s worst team in the biggest game of their season, with their No. 7 overall pick Bijan Robinson finishing with eight touches for 14 yards and a lost fumble.

The Panther scraped by mostly with a turnover advantage, plus not being bottom-of-the barrel bad running the ball, like the Panthers. The rushing attack was supposed to be the given of the Falcons offense coming into the season, with upside in the passing game possible. Instead, the Falcons have gone from third in rushing EPA in 2022 to 27th in 2023, and their run success rate falling from 45% to 35%.

Desmond Ridder didn’t look great in this game, but had enough big plays to bring his overall efficiency into the positive, and he was the least of the Falcons problems this week. Even so, Ridder has little chance at this point to be the first-choice 2024 starter, outside the highly improbable chance the Falcons win-out, and possibly get a playoff W.

One of the better performances of the year still totaled negative EPA for Bryce Young. He limited mistakes (three sacks and no turnovers), which have plagued him all season. Despite completed 13.6% more passes than expected, Young only generated +1.4 passing EPA.

CLE-CHI