Week 15 SNF Jaguars-Ravens: Advanced Review
Week 15 SNF Jaguars-Ravens: Advanced Review
Too many mistakes for the Jaguars, while the Ravens defense shines again. Plus, some talk on perception vs reality on Lamar Jackson
The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
Find previous advanced reviews here
** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
JAX-BAL
Figuring out the Jaguars has been one of the more confounding exercises this season. When things are going well, the defense seems to be a pressure-generating machine with good coverage on the backend, and Trevor Lawrence looks like the generational prospect promised. Then a couple weeks pass, we all get locked into that opinion, and they shift completely in the other direction.
With this loss, the Jags postseason probability is down to 75%, and the No. 1 AFC seed is completely dead. Whereas the Ravens are locked into the playoffs, and have a 75% chance now of securing the No. 1 seed and bye week in the AFC. Even with a loss to the 49ers next week, the Ravens can pretty much wrap up the No. 1 seed (93% probability) with a win the following week at home against the Dolphins.
Last night’s results were part of a two-game skid where the Jags look like one of the least disciplined teams in the NFL. The Jags ran 36 plays and gained 179 yards in the first half but came away with zero points. The drives went: punt, missed field-goal (50 yarder), missed field-goal (55 yarder), fumble on the Ravens 20 yard-line, and driving down to the Ravens 5 yard-line before foolishly running out the clock. Outside of an early third quarter touchdown drive, the offense did nothing in the second half.
This has been the typical winning formula for the Ravens this season: strong defense, great rushing, and Lamar Jackson making the occasional unbelievable-looking play in the dropback game to finishing with decent passing efficiency. In this game, Jackson’s results were severely hampered by the biggest impact play of the game going against him, a well-read interception by Rayshawn Jenkins. The fact that the ball was returned 18 yards and came from a very favorable context (2nd & 4 on the Jaguars 38 yard-line) made it highly negative (-5.8 EPA).
Lawrence killed multiple drives with fumbles, the first being as inexplicable as it was damaging, seemingly dropping the ball on the ground without contact on the Ravens 20 yard-line (-4.7 EPA, -16.2% win probability added).
It’s not surprising from anyone watching that Lawrence had bad numbers in this game, but it might be unexpected to see that Jackson’s efficiency was average, at best, even losing EPA in total when dropping back to pass. The completeness of the Ravens passing defense is illustrated by Lawrence’s -2.3 EPA on pass attempts, which excludes the negatives from his fumbles and one sack taken. Whenever the ball left his hand the Jaguars were losing value.
Jackson simply had too many negatives to put up good results in this game, with the killer interception and three highly negative sacks taken (-6.1 EPA). Jackson did produce well on the ground (+5.4 EPA) on eight designed runs and four scrambles. Jackson hasn’t been as active on the ground this season, but his running is still a huge weapon that could be unleashed in the playoffs.
Jackson is up to second in MVP odds (+450), though a good distance away from Brock Purdy (-190) and virtually tied with Dak Prescott, last week’s MVP odds leader. It’s not likely, but I can see a world where the Ravens beat the 49ers next week in San Francisco, their defense makes Purdy look bad and Jackson suddenly jumps to the top of odds. Now, the betting markets make the 49ers a 5-point favorite with a 65% chance to win, but 35% probability events happen often.
If Jackson would win MVP this year, it would be one of the biggest disconnects between perception and results ever. Every quarterback to win the award since the turn of the century has been either first or second in EPA per play, and Jackson is currently 12th. The one MVP winner who wasn’t at the top of EPA efficiency was Cam Newton, but even he was much higher ranked at 6th, and his team finished with an insane 15-1 record.
Similarly to Newton, Jackson seems to be getting a lot of credit for the overall team results, mixed in with “wow” plays he makes that would be extremely difficult for any other quarterback. The Ravens strong team results and 11-3 record can primary be explained by their second-ranked efficiency defense. Even the Ravens 6th ranked offense is driving most of its relative value on non-QB runs (second in EPA), versus quarterback dropbacks (12th). Those advocating for Jackson as MVP are caught in a logical puzzle of the Ravens team success being a big factor, but the numbers showing that plays Jackson is directly involved in not being a driver of that success. That said, it’s not like logical inconsistency stops many of the strongly held opinions we see in NFL media.
What normally happens to bend illogical takes and opinions to the facts is that over the course of a season the quarterback efficiency eventually gets closer and closer to matching team results. Next week’s game between the 49ers and Ravens is the best chance for that common phenomenon to play out.
Love this article. Love, love love it. The whole Purdy/Jackson/MVP issue to me crystalizes the fact that MVP awards, like Hall of Fame awards (particularly the way baseball does that) or Heisman awards and other awards that aren't defined as being about something in particular, are defined by their sloppiness and that for myself I can't take them too seriously. Too much eye testing and rooting for your favorite team's players involved.
The cases for and against Purdy and Jackson, so opposite, in a season where there is no clear cut leader just show the weakness of this award. And yeah why not Josh Allen and Dak Prescott both of whom have strong cases and also serious areas of weaknesses depending on what you most value. The best thing I can say is thank god that it is voted on by writers and not players. But beauty is in the eye of the beholder here.
As a Ravens fan I'd most likely give my vote to Allen. But with serious reservations. In voting for Allen, I am saying that I am defining the MVP award as which player is hardest to replace on a team that is a serious Super Bowl contender-which is totally my own definition and most everyone else can think otherwise. To me Purdy is a) having a great year, and b) could be replaced by Jake Browning and few would notice. But his team at the moment seems like the best team in the league, that EPA is so sexy, and those things mean something since the MVP award has some sort of non-defined connection to overall team success. So then QB on the best team? Purdy. He's maxing out the riches that are in the SF offense. But maybe Buffalo is the best team right now so Allen? But those 6 losses do mean something, I don't know what, and they are a very convenient counting stat. And the new OC is finally revving up their run game that is not dependent on Allen.
I do not think the Ravens are the best team but why are they leading the AFC? I do see defensive holes such that talk of the D being historically great just seems silly. But it is very good that will probably get exposed next weekend. The team is getting better at holding a lead. So the very inconsistent Lamar? Possibly only Allen could replace him and get similar results. Maybe. I also see Lamar needing to do more designed runs for the team in their remaining games.
Ugh. Sorry for the long post which basically says I am clueless about this silly award.
I was wondering how EPA would handle Lawrence’s completion that ran out the clock in Q2. Glad it’s treated as a huge negative since it took at least three points off the board. That’s one of those situations where the boxscore doesn’t tell the story at all.