Week 15 Saturday: Advanced Reviews

Huge swings in playoff probabilities, with the Steelers almost dead, and the Bengals very much alive

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

CIN-MIN

I’m a little surprised the adjusted scores still give the fundamental advantage to the Bengals, with the Vikings out-gaining them by 46 yards, at a rate of of 6.3 per play to only 5.5. Anyone watching the game also can’t help but see the Vikings as ultimately unlucky to lose after failing to convert a pivotal 4th & inches sneak on the Bengals 42 yard-line in overtime, only needing to gain another 5-10 yards and field goal to win the game.