Week 15 NFL Power Rankings

The Rams remain King, with a couple teams dropping out of the next tier

The Week 15 power rankings combine the initial, Week 1 power rankings I released and the evidence from four weeks of NFL football. The key in updating the rankings is knowing when to not overreact (Lions taking a shellacking in Green Bay) and when to be aggressively moving assumptions (maybe the Colts offense will be functional with a real NFL quarterback). Right now, the rankings incorporate roughly 95/5 mix of team strength based on this and last season’s performance.

For more info you can find the archive of previous Power Rankings posts, including the Week 1 rankings that detail much of the methodology of coming up with .

In this post, I’m going to walk through how my team-strength model views every team offensively and defensively for their 2025 performance going into Week 15, plus comparisons of my numbers to those derived by looking out over the next two weeks on the betting markets.

TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STRENGTH

*Downloadable power ratings/rankings available in the paid subscriber Google sheet.

The Los Angeles Rams remain in their own tier, shaking off an “unlucky” loss to the Carolina Panthers two weeks back, and crushing the Arizona Cardinals in Week 14. Nobody is going to catch them; barring an injury to Matthew Stafford, they will be the No. 1 team going into the playoffs.

The next tier of teams has shifted a bit, mostly with the Green Bay Packers nudging out in front, and the Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs almost falling completely out of the tier. Obviously the Colts will fall dramatically further in my power rankings with the injury to Daniel Jones, and the Chiefs aren’t viewed much differently than the teams right below them, like the Denver Broncos, Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans, San Francisco 49ers and Chicago Bears. I’m sure Chiefs-haters (of which there are many) will still be incredulous of my ranking of the team, even if they slip a couple spots in the rankings.

UNEXPECTED POINTS VERSUS THE MARKET

** These are Tuesday morning numbers on the betting markets from inpredictable, which often firm up during the week.