Week 15 MNF Seahawks-Eagles: Advanced Review

Drew Lock keeps the Seahawks in the playoff hunt, and now the Eagles are trying to simply hold onto the NFC East

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

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** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

SEA-PHI

I thought the adjusted scores might favor the Eagles, but didn’t expect it would be by a full touchdown. The obvious number driving the difference is a 7.3% success rate advantage for the Eagles, who turned fewer of those successful (positive EPA) plays into big gains than the Seahawks. The Seahawks benefited from a turnover advantage, mostly by not committing any themselves, as the Eagles two interceptions only cost them 4.0 expected points, with the game-ending pick at just -0.4 EPA.

The +3.8 special teams and penalty advantage for the Seahawks is on the high side, roughly equivalent to getting another turnover, and an aspect of the game I highly discount in the adjusted scores. Perhaps the Seahawks have a sustainable advantage with punter Michael Dickson, who averaged an insane 56 yards on five punts. One Dickson punt truly “flipped the field”, going 57 yards in the air from the Seahawks 22 to the Eagles 21, resulting in a fair catch and zero return yards.

Another detail that isn’t explicitly in the adjusted scores, but it probably reflected in a similar way, is the rolling game-state by win probability. The Eagles were significant favorites to pull out the victory from the first-half kickoff until fewer than 30 seconds remaining, when the Seahawks scored the go-ahead touchdown.

Despite the success rate differential, the Seahawks averaged slightly more EPA per play on offense, which makes sense as they did, in fact, win the game. Both teams outperformed offensively dropping back to pass and with designed runs, though the Eagles had negative EPA on non-Jalen Hurts designed runs, with three successful Hurts “tush pushes” adding +1.7 EPA.

Unsurprisingly, the game-winning touchdown from Drew Lock to Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the highest impact play of the game, in expected points added (+4.3) and win probability added (+49.6%, going from 29% to 79% for the Seahawks). The next biggest play was Hurts’ first interception targeting Quez Watkins 45 yards down the field, with Julian Love making a great play on the ball, versus Watkins’ subpar effort. The play was especially costly coming on 1st & 10 at midfield, though mitigated a little by 25 net yards in field position.

The third most impactful play, a 34-yard D.K. Metcalf reception on 3rd & 10, also came on the Seahawks final drive, showing the improbability of what the Seahawks and Lock accomplished after being stymied offensively most of the game. The next two plays were also on the more highly discounted variety by my adjusted scores: a 4th down conversion via pass interference (was a good call) and a 23-yard touchdown run from Kenneth Walker. To give an idea of how improbable the last play was, there have been 35 running-back touchdown runs of 20-plus yards the entire season, or one every 6.4 games.

Hurts didn’t have a bad game, not making any mistakes outside of a 50/50-type interception and another desperation throw. He wasn’t great through the air, but added +6.3 EPA on designed runs and scrambles. Though, Hurts’ -8% CPOE does hint at struggles with accuracy. I expect Hurts will get more criticism with the Eagles now losing, the flip-side of him getting too much credit when he was leading MVP odds and the Eagles only had one loss.

This was the game of Lock’s career, and incredibly important for keeping the Seahawks in the playoff hunt. They had roughly a 25% postseason chance going into Week 15, and now sit at 45%, with a relatively easy schedule remaining (@TEN, PIT, @ARI).

Realistically, the Eagles chance for the No. 1 seed in the NFC was already mostly gone heading into the week, and now is completely dust. They have to worry about just holding onto the NFC East and getting a Wild-Card home game, with the Cowboys also at 10-4.

The Eagles will hold, barely, the tiebreaker if both teams win-out in division games and finish with the same record. The Eagles face the Giants twice and the Cowboys play the Commanders in Week 18. This tiebreaker would go all the way to common opponents, with the teams splitting the head-to-head matchups and finishing with the same divisional record.