Week 15 Late Window: Advanced Reviews
All the advanced stats, visualizations & commentary for Broncos-Packers, Rams-Lions, Panthers-Saints, Seahawks-Colts & 49ers-Titans
The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
Find previous advanced reviews here
** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
DEN vs GB (-1.5)
The Denver Broncos keep racking up wins, in this case of the more impressive variety that even my adjusted scores have to respect. Beating the Green Bay Packers solidly on Sunday will go a long way in this week’s upcoming power rankings, and the Packers were at the top of the non-Rams tier going into the week.
With this win and the Patriots losing earlier, the Broncos are the clear favorite to win the No. 1 seed (roughly 70%), with the Pats, Jaguars, Bills and Chargers still in the mix to varying degrees. The Packers are out of the No. 1 seed race in the NFC, and have about a 50/50 chance to win the NFC North, with the Bears as their primary competitor. All the odds and predictions for the Packers are thrown into some chaos with the reported ACL tear for Micah Parsons.
