Week 15 Late Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations and commentary for Cardinals-Patriots, Broncos-Colts, Lions-Bills, Bucs-Chargers & Eagles-Steelers

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

ARI (-6) vs NE

Perhaps the game was a little closer than the final score, as the adjusted numbers indicate. But the fact that the Arizona Cardinals led the New England Patriots by multiple scores for most of the game didn’t make it feel that way.

The Cardinals were able to juice their modest 46% offensive success rate into 82nd percentile EPA efficiency through an outsized third-down conversion rate (10-for-15, +9.1 EPA). Whereas the Patriots failed to convert any of their six third downs (-5.4 EPA), and went 1-for-2 on fourth down tries (-2.2 EPA). The Cardinals also enjoyed a +6.4 EPA advantage in special teams and penalties, which included a missed Joey Slye field goal that cost the Patriots 4.1 expected points.

It was a great game by the numbers for Kyler Murray, and relatively good for Drake Maye too. Murray wasn’t fantastically productive passing the ball (224 yards and zero touchdowns on 30 attempts) and derived much of his yardage via receiver YAC, but he avoided turnovers and didn’t take a single sack.

DEN (-4.5) vs IND