Week 15 Early Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations & commentary for Bears-Browns, Bengals-Ravens, Texans-Cardinals, Jaguars-Jets, Chiefs-Chargers, Patriots-Bills, Giants-Commanders & Eagles-Raiders

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

CHI (-7.5) vs CLE

I’m kinda impressed how the Cleveland Browns pulled off an offensive success rate of only 7.7% (excluding plays with less than a 1% win probability, of which there were many). Including garbage time, the Browns’ success rate jumps to 23.2%, the third worst for any offense this year. The Chicago Bears won by 28 points, and the adjusted point differential was all the way up at 25, an incredibly high number.

Looking at the playoff picture, the Bears have up to roughly 75% likelihood of making the postseason, probably needing one more win in their last three to seal the playoffs. They have a very difficult schedule, facing the Green Bay Packers, San Francisco 49ers and Detroit Lions.

The Bears passing game had been fragile this season, but a 66th percentile EPA efficiency against the NFL’s best pass defense (by my numbers) got the job done. Despite getting fewer opportunities to rush the quarterback than many other edge defenders, Myles Garrett leads the NFL with 21.5 official sacks, only one off the single-season record with three games left to play.

If Shedeur Sanders was playing for a chance to be the Browns preferred starting option entering the 2026 season, he did himself no favors in this contest. Sanders was picked three times and took five sacks, barely completed half of his passes (18/35) and averaged fewer than 10 yards per completion.

Caleb Williams had a solid game, though playing under little pressure to score from the opposing offense. Williams finished with 242 passing yards and two touchdowns.

CIN vs BAL (-2.5)

In a game that was more competitive than the final score, the Baltimore Ravens appeared to destroy the Cincinnati Bengals. The Ravens defense was legit, shutting down Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense on a sustained basis, while cashing in on hugely valuable turnovers, including an 11.1 expected points gain on a pick-6.