Week 15 Early Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations and commentary for Panthers-Cowboys, Browns-Chiefs, Texans-Dolphins, Jaguars-Jets, Saints-Commanders, Giants-Ravens & Titans-Bengals

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

CAR (-2.5) vs DAL

The Carolina Panthers and Bryce Young of old returned in this dreadful performance, following some hopeful signs the last several weeks. The Panthers were dominated on both sides of the ball, facing a Dallas Cowboys team without their starting quarterback and the fifth worst defense in the NFL by opponent EPA per play coming into Week 15.

The Panthers turned the ball over four times, two interceptions and two lost fumbles credited to Young. The Panthers only accumulated 235 total yards on offense, continually killing drives with third-down failures (3-for-11), while the Cowboys converted half of their third downs and only gave away the ball once.

While it was a poor efficiency game for Young, you can take some good away from the performance if you ignore the massive negatives. Young accumulated +23.7 EPA on non-interception passes, but his four turnovers and six sacks translated to 27.1 EPA lost.

CLE vs KC (-4.5)