Week 14 Sunday, Early Window: Advanced Reviews

The Ravens push towards the No. 1 seed and the Bucs look for the NFC South crown

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

NO vs CAR

One of two “showdowns” in the NFL’s worst division, and both teams forgot their offensive fireworks. The adjusted scores see this as a narrower, but still convincing win for the Saints.

The Panthers were bad offensively on a play-by-play basis with a 35% success rate, but thoroughly awful on late down conversion attempts. The Panthers were 8-of-20 on third downs and 1-of-7 on fourth, losing 15.2 expected points on the latter.

The Panthers registered EPA-based efficiency in the 5th percentile, but this time it was much more about a fundamental inability to move the ball than turnovers. Bryce Young did have the most costly play of the game (a 1st & 10 strip sack), and the second most costly was a “fumble” by Johnny Hekker that looked to me much like a blocked punt, scoop and score.

This is one of the few games I’ve seen with negative “Pass EPA” for both teams, meaning losing value while dropping back to pass after excluding sacks, fumbles and interceptions. Young and Derek Carr averaged 3.8 and 4.6 yards per attempt respectively, and Young’s net yards per pass attempt was 2.5 yards after accounting for four sacks (38 yards lost).

At 6-7 the Saints aren’t out of the playoff picture, tied in record with the Bucs and Falcons, and they play both the final two weeks of the season. The Saints are the only team in the division with a positive points differential (+24).

CHI vs DET