Week 14 SNF, Cowboys-Eagles: Advanced Review

Dak Prescott with another MVP performance, as everything continues to go wrong for the Eagles

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

DAL-PHI

The Cowboys were the thorough winners in this one, though not quite as much by the adjusted scores. The Eagles were less than 3% worse on play-by-play offensive success rate, but were a little unlucky to lose all three fumbles (Cowboys did lose their one fumble) and actually out-gained the Cowboys by simple yards per play (6.2 to 5.3).

Somehow the Eagles only scored on two offensive drives, despite punting just once. Unlike in some previous “lucky” victories, the Eagles weren’t able to turn an unsustainably high percentage of their successful drives into touchdowns. Three different Eagles drives within the Cowboys 30 yard-line ended up with zero points, and another stalled out at midfield.

Two receiver fumbles sunk the Eagles passing efficiency, and Jalen Hurts put the ball on the ground on one of his rushing attempts (total -13.5 EPA). The biggest play of the game was a negative for the Cowboys, when Dak Prescott held onto the ball too long in the pocket, and the 3rd & 10 strip sack turned into a scoop and score for the Eagles (-8.4 EPA).

The Prescott MVP hype is now deafening, leading the pack at around +175, despite not having his best game by the numbers. Now, his efficiency in this contest was severely weakened by one play (the fumble-6), as his per play efficiency would have more than doubled without it. By the numbers Prescott was worse than his main MVP competitor Brock Purdy on Sunday, but it certainly looked better and the competition was higher than the Drew Lock-led Seahawks. The Cowboys only have a 8-10% chance for the No. 1 seed with the 49ers playing well, but it’s a possibility that looked closed a few weeks ago.

I’m not sure if it’s injuries or just a slump in play, but Hurts is struggling right now. He’s accumulated less than 10 total EPA in his last four starts, and his completion percentage over expected has been negative in three of those games. The Eagles running game has also ground to a halt, posting negative EPA in three straight, following positive contributions in seven of the first 10 games.

Hurts will probably get more blame for the Eagles defensive and running game troubles than he deserves, as he got a little too much credit when they won games. Despite their struggles, the Eagles still have a roughly 25-30% chance of securing the No. 1 seed in front of the surging 49ers.