Week 14 Monday Night Chargers-Eagles: Advanced Review

The Chargers win in overtime, with Jalen Hurts playing the role of turnover machine

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

LAC (-1.5) vs PHI

If you like field goals, fumbles and interceptions, you loved watching this game. There were nine field goals, five fumbles (three lost) and five interceptions combined in the game. The Eagles got the worst of things, with the only miss among 10 field goal attempts, and losing five of the eight turnovers. The Chargers enjoyed a +12.8 EPA effect from that turnover differential, ultimately making the biggest difference in which team won the game.