Week 14 TNF, Steelers-Patriots: Advanced Review

The Patriots win a game that maybe they shouldn't want to, and the Steelers playoff chances continue to evaporate

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

PIT-NE

The adjusted scores show the Steelers as the “better” team in a game full of offensive ineptitude, with a success rate 10% higher, yet horrible at converting the highest leverage late downs (third & fourth).

Both teams were bad converting third downs: 3-of-14 for the Steelers and 4-of-13 for the Patriots. Yet the Steelers lost a lot more expected points, with Mitchell Trubisky throwing an interception and taking two sacks on three of those failures. On the other side, a Bailey Zappe 3rd & 3 completion to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 28 yards was, by far, the most positive play either team made on third downs. The Steelers were also 1-or-3 on fourth downs, losing another 3.4 expected points, including a one-yard gain on 4th & 2.

Offensive efficiency was hurt by fundamental issue with play-by-play success, and both teams committed costly turnovers (two most impactful plays of the game).

Hilariously, Bill Belichick proved his boomer credentials by punting all three times the numbers said his team had at least a 1% win probability gain from deciding to go-for-it. He lost a massive 6.5% win probability by forgoing a chance to convert by gaining a single yard on 4th down while only up by three points in the fourth quarter.

Zappe wasn’t good in this game, but a handful of big plays mitigated a hugely negative (-7.1 EPA) tipped interception. Trubisky, unsurprisingly, wasn’t an upgrade over the struggling Kenny Pickett.

The importance of this game relates to the playoff picture for the Steelers and tankathon for the Patriots. Sorry Steelers fan, but I think the collective NFL fan base is rooting for someone else to make the playoffs, and this loss at home to one of the worst teams in the NFL made a big impact in that direction. With this loss, betting markets have the Steelers at roughly a one-in-three chance to make the postseason, which aligns with my numbers.

Importantly, the Bills were the the biggest beneficiary of the Steelers loss, with their playoff offs rising to over 20% in betting markets, and closer to 30% by my Bills-loving numbers. They still have the toughest schedule in the NFL remaining, but the Bills would immediately become a top Super Bowl contender if they can just get in the postseason.

The No. 1 pick is getting close to locked up at this point for the Bears via the Carolina Panthers. Now every team has two more wins than the Panthers, and the tiebreaker (opponent win percentage) is a coin-flip between the Patriots and Panthers. The other three win team (Cardinals) has a stronger opponent record, and will lose the tiebreaker to either team. That last bit is important for the Patriots chance to get the No. 2 pick, and presumably whichever of Caleb Williams or Drake Maye isn’t taken at No. 1.

Five teams current sit with four wins, and the Bears have, by far, the worst combined opponent record of the group. The chance of the Bears getting the top-2 picks in the draft is still very much in play.