Week 14 MNF, Giants-Packers & Dolphins-Titans: Advanced Reviews

Tommy DeVito and Will Levis stun their playoff-contending foes

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

NYG-GB

The game was a special teams nightmare for both teams, with multiple punt return fumbles and missed field goals, but those plays roughly averaged out. Fundamentally, the Giants offense was much more successful on a play-by-play basis, and deserved the win.

Tommy DeVito led a highly efficiency passing game, and the Giants 30th percentile rushing efficiency understates their strong ability to gain chunks on the ground (48% success rate) due to a massive Saquon Barkley fumble on the end of a 34-yard gain. Removing that fumble loss, the Giants would have averaged +0.08 EPA per designed run, not the actual -0.19.

Fumbles litter the top plays, but as mentioned about special teams, they mostly netted out among the two teams. The other big negative plays were a bad Jordan Love interception and Saquon Barkley failing to convert a 4th & 1.

It was a shockingly good and uncharacteristic performance from DeVito, who had been averaging -0.2 EPA per play going into the game, reflecting the league’s worst sack rate at almost 20% of dropbacks. DeVito took zero sacks last night, and he didn’t commit a turnover, giving a ton of upside to his strong passing and rushing numbers. DeVito was also highly accurate (+15.6% CPOE) after being one of the least accurate quarterbacks going into Monday night. DeVito certainly isn’t the long-term answer for the Giants, but he’s a fun story the NFL needed in a year of quarterback injuries, and his record goes to 3-1 as starter.

Maybe this is a two steps forward, one step back situation for Love. He wasn’t awful by the numbers at -0.07 EPA per play, but the optics were bad with an unnecessarily risking downfield interception on 2nd & 7 at midfield, plus a somewhat careless fumble on what would have still been a very makable 4th & 1 try he he held on. Outside of those negatives, and two sacks taken, Love was productive when the ball left his hand and wasn’t intercepted, generating +12.9 EPA.

The Packers loss drops them to 6-7, though still in the final 7th seed in the NFC. They have roughly a 50% chance to make the playoffs by my numbers. Their playoff probability will be cut in half with a loss next week to the Bucs, or rise to around 65% with a win.

MIA-TEN

My adjusted scores had the Dolphins as a slightly better team in this one, despite the loss. It isn’t entirely surprising when you consider they had a 14-point lead and 98.5% win probability (whoops!) after scoring a touchdown to take a two touchdown lead (27-13) with around 4:30 remaining. Not only did we get a thrilling comeback, but the Titans successfully implemented the go-for-2-down-8 strategy that yours was instrumental explaining to fans when it was first used by the Eagles and Giants (props to Pat Shurmur) in the 2018-2019 seasons.

There were fireworks at the end of the game, but the early portion of the contest was marked by offensive ineptitude, especially near the opponent’s end zone. There wasn’t an offense score until sixth possession 23 minutes into the game. The first five times the teams got inside their opponents’ 10 yard-line they came away with a combined 12 points. There was also a blocked field goal try by the Dolphins from a very makable 44 yards out.

The adjusted scores might not have properly captured the division of offensive success by the teams and the impact on results. The Dolphins were nearly as successful running the ball on a play-by-play basis as the Titans were passing, and were much more successful in the reverse. Yet still, having a successful passing game can more easily make up for inefficiencies running the ball, and the Titans overall EPA per play was higher, despite their two most impactful plays being big turnovers (-10.9 EPA on the Will Levis bad-toss fumble and pick-6).

Levis more than made up for his errors with big-time passes down the field, with his season-high +18 EPA on non-interception throws. He also showed mobility, with +3.6 EPA added on two scrambles that eventually led to the Titans first touchdown.

It was a mistake filled game for Tua Tagovailoa, with another mishandled snap fumble, and an uncharacteristic five sacks taken for 32 yards lost (-6.5 EPA). This loss was a huge blow to the Dolphins chance of securing the No. 1 seed and bye week in the AFC. I have them now at a one-in-five chance to do so, from almost 1-in-2 going into the game. The Dolphins end the season with the Jets and a gauntlet of Cowboys, Ravens and Bills. The Dolphins will likely get the No. 1 seed if they can beat the Ravens and equal their record in the remaining games, but it will be a tall task.