Week 14 Late Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations & commentary for Raiders-Broncos, Cardinals-Rams & Packers-Bears

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

LV vs DEN (-8.5)

The Denver Broncos have been consistently lower in my power rankings than reflected in their W-L record, with the adjusted scores seeing some of their victories as games that could have gone either way. In this week’s game at the Las Vegas Raiders, the adjusted scores show the Broncos were vastly superior to the competition, though the game technically finishes as another “one-score” win.

The sequence of scoring makes the final point tally deceptive, with the Broncos holding a 24-7 lead with less than four minutes left in the game, then giving up 10 points on two quick Raiders drives to end things.