Week 14 Early Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations & commentary for Falcons-Seahawks, Ravens-Steelers, Bills-Bengals, Browns-Titans, Jaguars-Colts, Vikings-Commanders, Jets-Dolphins & Bucs-Saints

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

ATL vs SEA (-7)

The adjusted scores comport with my impression watching¹ this game: the Seahawks were better, but not close to as good as the final score differential. The Seahawks offense started slow, with the game tied 6-6 at halftime, including a Falcons field attempt being blocked.

Then the two teams diverged completely in the second half, as the Seahawks pumped their success rate and EPA efficiency up to respectable figures, and the Falcons offense turned the ball over three times and failed to convert on downs on another possession.

The Falcons converted only 2-of-13 third downs, losing -21.6 EPA on failures and three turnovers, while the Seahawks had roughly flat EPA on conversions. The Seahawks benefited from a second-half opening kick return for a touchdown (+6.1 EPA), the most impactful play of the game (+23.8% win probability).

If you weren’t certain Kirk Cousins was washed after last season, there’s been more than enough evidence this year to erase any doubts. Among 41 quarterbacks this season, Cousins only tops J.J. McCarthy and Cam Ward in EPA efficiency.

Sam Darnold finished with MVP-level efficiency, after having a bit of a rough start. He’s put the Seahawks in a credible position to not only win in the division (roughly 35% chance), but potentially win the No. 1 seed in the NFC (~25%).

BAL (-5.5) vs PIT

Performances like we saw in this game is why you the Pittsburgh Steelers got Aaron Rodgers this offseason, even at his advanced age. He’s not going to win MVP or lead the league in passing efficiency, but he can still spin a football, and, if everything goes right, he can win you a game on the road against your biggest divisional rivals.

All that said, the adjusted scores show the Baltimore Ravens as a slightly better team by the fundamentals, mostly due to a marginally better offensive success rate (46% to 41%). The Ravens lost the game with their inability to finish long drives, only scoring touchdowns on 2-of-6 red zone possessions.

The Steelers were outgained 318 yards to 420, but they were significantly more efficient with the 26 fewer plays they had (6.2 yards per play to 5.5). The Steelers had four three-and-out drives to one for the Ravens, but they scored on all five of their other possessions.