Week 14 Early Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations and commentary for Dolphins-Jets, Vikings-Falcons, Giants-Saints, Eagles-Panthers, Steelers-Browns, Buccaneers-Raiders & Titans-Jaguars

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

MIA (-6.5) vs NYJ

There was incredibly little uncertainty going into Week 14 on who the AFC playoff representatives were going to be, with the Chiefs, Bills, Steelers, Texans and Chargers having better than 90% likelihood of making the postseason. The Miami Dolphins are one of three teams with any realistic chance of taking the sixth and final spot, and this victory puts their chances at roughly 15%.

The Dolphins needed overtime to get the job done, with the New York Jets posting their best offensive EPA efficiency of the season. Both teams leaned into stronger passing attacks, but the Dolphins were much worse on the ground, losing 6.2 expected points on only 20 designed runs.

The Dolphins offense only generated 86th percentile efficiency on an insanely high 58% success rate due to their inability to convert third downs, going 1-for-9 (-9.5 EPA), though going 2-for-2 on fourth downs (+6.2).

All the big-name receivers shined in this contest. Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams combined for 223 receiving yards (+18.4 EPA when targeted), while Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle totaled 214 yards (+18.9). Jonnu Smith proved the key target in overtime, catching three passes for 44 yards and the game-sealing touchdown, after one incomplete target in regulation.

It was a return to form week for Aaron Rodgers, throwing for 300-plus yards for the first time in nearly three years, hitting the second-highest marks of the season in efficiency and CPOE. Rodgers’ best game for most rate stats was Week against the Patriots.

Tua Tagovailoa now trails only Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson in EPA efficiency this season, with Allen’s Week 14 game pending as of the publish of this writeup.

MIN (-6) vs ATL