Week 13, TNF Cowboys-Seahawks: Advanced Review

Cowboys win a shoot-out, with outstanding performances for both quarterbacks and fourth down struggles taking down the Seahawks

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

DAL vs SEA

The Cowboys prevail in a shootout in Dallas, but they might come out of this game with some concerns about how easily the Seahawks were able to move the ball against their vaunted defense. The game was riddled with penalties (total 19 for 157 yards) and it was only the fifth time in NFL history that neither team punted, but that fact overstates somewhat the offense success in the game. Four drives ended with failed fourth conversions and one via an interception on 3rd & 7.

The Cowboys were the more consistently efficient team (53% to 47% success rate), but the Seahawks had a significant big-play advantage, driving higher overall efficiency. The Seahawks hit above the 93rd percentile in EPA per play despite poor rushing success (33%) and efficiency (-0.26 EPA per).

By traditional numbers, Zach Charbonnet was okay, with 19 carries for 60 yards and a touchdown. But outside of one 14-yard carry on 1st & 10, Charbonnet never went for more than seven yards on any carry, failing to convert a 4th & 1 (-3.5 EPA). He almost killed another drive with a 5-yard loss on 2nd & 9 from inside the Cowboys 10 yard-line, only for the Seahawks to be bailed out by defensive pass interference on 3rd & Goal from the 15.

The Seahawks were 0-for-3 on fourth down conversion attempts on the final three drives of the game, and just one conversion of attempts with three or fewer yards to gain could have shifted the outcome of the game. The Cowboys were 1-of-2 on fourth down conversions, with Tony Pollard gained 11 yards on 4th & 1, and a touchdown on 4th & Goal from the 3 yard-line negated by offensive holding.

This was a monster efficiency game for both quarterbacks, though I’d give the nod to Dak Prescott as the better quarterback, despite his lower per-play efficiency. First, he put the game on his back, with 60 play involvements, a positive completion percentage over expected (+4.6%) and more value generation through the air. Yours truly had been beating the “Dak is playing like an MVP” drum for a few weeks now, and according to my twitter feed the rest of the world is jumping on the bandwagon.

Geno Smith numbers are incredibly strong, but a little overstated due to his two most positive plays including 98 yards of yard-after-catch from receivers, which helped offset lower accuracy (-7.5% CPOE). With some rumbling about Smith’s low-term viability as the Seahawks starter early this week, coming off of some poor outings, this should solidify his status. Smith moves up a few spots in seasonal EPA per play, to 17th, or roughly league average.

With this loss, the 6-6 Seahawks are now underdogs to make the playoffs according to betting markets (35% implied probability). The Cowboys have their toughest stretch of the season to come, facing the Eagles, Bills and Dolphins in consecutive weeks. A win next week will put them firmly in the NFC No. 1 seed discussion, with a lot left to do.