Week 13 Thanksgiving Day Slate: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations and commentary for Lions-Bears, Cowboys-Giants & Packers-Dolphins

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

DET (-9.5) vs CHI

The Detroit Lions ended up surviving in the end, following much-discussed poor clock management by the Chicago Bears to end the game. The Lions were up 16-0 at halftime and then 23-7 with a little under three minutes left in the third quarter. The Lions were above 95% win probability in both situations, yet they only ran 11 total plays and gained one first down in their final three possessions, which included a 45-yard missed field goal (-3.7 EPA). That opened the door for the Bears comeback, scoring touchdowns on two of three drives before the calamitous ending.

As to who should take the blame on the Bears for letting clock at the end, I think it’s best to say all relevant parties are at fault. There was enough negativity around Matt Eberflus in the air already for him to most get blamed for not “helping out his young quarterback” in this situation. But I think those takes are infantilizing Caleb Williams a bit too much. Being a rookie in the NFL doesn’t mean you haven’t had enough reps in your life in end-of-game situations to know you can’t 1) take a sack to get knocked out of field-goal range, and 2) gather the team and try to change the play before slowly snapping the ball once the team was lined up.

The Lions were the better offense by success rate and EPA efficiency, but those numbers ended up being fairly close in the end. They could have had an even bigger lead in the first half if not for a Jahmyr Gibbs post-catch fumble, the only turnover of the game (-3.4 EPA).

The Lions rushing game was a bit more efficient than dropping back to pass, with David Montgomery’s -2.9 total EPA on 22 designed runs more than offset up the explosive Gibbs generating +4.4 EPA on nine carries. Gibbs now leads the NFL in total EPA on the ground (+31.7), even more than “MVP candidate” Saquon Barkley (+28.0), and on 60 fewer attempts.

Jared Goff was fairly efficient, netting out the Gibbs fumble after the catch. But he, once again, relied heavily on YAC from his receivers, which is generally an easier way to accumulate value than making throws down the field.

Williams finished with flat EPA after a rough start, but his accuracy was poor by the numbers, completing only 51% of his passes. Williams didn’t turn the ball over, but his five sacks taken cost the offense 7.1 expected points. Holding onto the ball too long has been a consistent issue for Williams, who leads the entire NFL in expected points lost to sacks this season (-74.8 EPA).

DAL (-4.5) vs NYG

I’m not sure anyone had a Cooper Rush versus Drew Lock quarterback “battle” on their radar for this matchup until last week, but that’s what we got. The results were about as poor as you’d expect, with neither team topping 40% offense success rate, and both teams averaging around the 25th percentile in EPA efficiency.

The Dallas Cowboys finished with the win on a huge turnover advantage (+13.9 EPA). Normally a number that big would include several mistakes for the opponent, yet there were only two turnovers in the game. It’s just that one happened to be a 40-yard pick-6 on 1st & 10 that cost the New York Giants 9.0 expected points and nearly 30% in win probability. It was a more random and highly athletic play by DeMarvion Overshown to tip the ball to himself and take it in for the score. Lock also lost a strip-sack fumble later in the game (-4.8 EPA).

The one thing that was decently working for the Giants offense was running the ball, but they only had 18 designed runs on the day, needing to pass on more than 70% of plays to try and make a comeback. The Cowboys were mediocre in both phases of offense.

There aren’t many games with bigger contrasts at quarterback in mistake making versus avoidance, with Drew Lock losing 23.1 expected points to turnovers and sacks (fifth highest total by any quarterback this season), and Cooper Rush not turning the ball over or taking a single sack (10th time a quarterback has done so this season).

GB (-3.5) vs MIA

The Miami Dolphins were feeling good going into the game, on a three-game win streak after a couple heartbreaking losses to the Arizona Cardinals and Buffalo Bills before that. The offense had been humming since Tua Tagovailoa returned, and their success rate in this contest slightly topped that of the Green Bay Packers, even though they lost the game by multiple scores. For that reason, the adjusted scores had this game as basically a toss-up, not the fairly easy win it ended up being.

The Packers took advantage of a huge +8.9 EPA advantage in special teams and penalties, two of the more random aspects of play. Playing into this advantage were a 43-yard kick return to open the game (+1.4 EPA), a perfect performance by kicker Brandon McManus (3-for-3 FGs and 3-for-3 XPs, total +1.3 EPA), and, most importantly, a recovered muffed punt return that set them up and the Dolphins 9 yard line (+6.0 EPA). The Dolphins also lost more than twice the penalty yards on the day (75 to 44).

The Packers were ultra efficient dropping back to pass, with multiple 40-plus yard plays driving efficiency. Their lower rushing success rate lowered overall numbers, which probably means that the adjusted scores are understating how good the offense was fundamentally in the game.

The Dolphins suffered the few times they did run the ball, losing 4.4 expected points on 14 running-back carries, and another 2.5 expected points lost on a play labeled as a quarterback rush/penalty in the first quarter.

A low-volume by high-impact game from Jordan Love, who didn’t commit any turnovers or take a sack. Tagovailoa was okay by the numbers, but a killer sack taken on 4th & 1 drove negatives in his numbers. The normally sack-avoidant Tagovailoa took a total of five sacks in the game. The Dolphins certainly prefer to play in better conditions, adding this to a string of poorer results in the cold.