Week 13 Sunday, Late Window: Advanced Reviews

49ers confirm their standing as the NFL's best team, the Rams keep outperforming expectations and the Bucs stay in the NFC South title hunt

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

The Steelers-Cardinals game was officially the early window, but I pushed it into the late window reviews with the weather delays.

PIT-ARI

This is one of the wildest differences in actual and adjusted scores, flipping from a 14-point Cardinals win to 6-point Steelers adjusted scores lead. The Steelers were much more successful on a play-by-play basis, but were killed by fumbles (lost one and the Cardinals recovered both of theirs), special teams and a monstrous difference on third downs.

The Cardinals consistently came up with the needed yardage on third down, converting 10-of-17, after failing to gain yards on early downs. Six of the Cardinals 10 conversions came with five-or-more yards to gain. Based on NFL-average expectations for down and distance, the Cardinals converted four more third downs than expected.