Week 13 Sunday, Early Window: Advanced Reviews

Dolphins roll over the Commanders, the Colts creeping towards the playoffs and C.J. Stroud keeps up his winning ways

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

The Steelers-Cardinals game is officially the early window, but I’m pushing it into the late window reviews with the weather delays.

HOU vs DEN

Huge flip here between the actual and adjusted scores, with the Texans posting a significantly worse offensive success rate (34% to 45%), but thriving on big plays, turnover advantage and a better late-down conversion rate.

The Broncos offense has been a higher success rate than efficiency offense all season (17th best success rate, 21st in EPA per play), but three huge interceptions and an outlandishly poor 0-for-11 on third down conversions sunk their ability to turn an offensive ability to move the ball into points.