NFL Week 13 Advanced Review

Adjusted Scores, Team Takeaways (What Happened to Tua?), and Coaching Decisions

The adjusted scores attempt to quantify team play quality, with emphasis on the most stable metrics (success rate), while downplaying the higher variance aspects of play (turnovers, big plays, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). These adjustments to expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, are then used to project adjusted points. The adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores for prior seasons and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

I’ve decided to make all the 2022 Adjusted Scores available to readers via Google Sheet. Check them out. I welcome your feedback.

Week 13: Selected Team Takeaways

Miami Dolphins: Tua …. More like Poo-a

Tua Tagovailoa had a bad game against the San Francisco 49ers - a really bad game. The Miami Dolphins signal-caller posted his worst efficiency numbers this season for EPA per play (-0.31) and completion percentage over expectation (-8.2%), and we don’t need to hold our breath for positive news from PFF when grades are unlocked: his is going to be bad.

Tagovailoa’s struggles against a formidable 49ers defense (1st in EPA per play allowed), coming on the heels of four cupcake matchups against the Lions (31st), Bears (32nd), Browns (28th) and Texans (19th), will weigh heavily on the public discourse. Don’t craft any drinking games around how many times this week the sports-talk-media complex utters the words “exposed” or “failed the test” in reference to the Dolphins offense: you might end up dead before noon Monday.

While the superficial efficiency numbers for Tagovailoa were awful, there could be a flicker of hope deep in the internals. If we separate EPA per play for Tagovailoa into facets (passing w/o INTs, INTs, sacks and scrambles), you can see that the Dolphins were able to produce value on passes generally, but many drives were crippled by backbreaking mistakes and the inability to convert third downs. The Dolphins lost a combined 21 expected points on Tagovailoa interceptions and sacks, while going 0-7 on third downs, including two 3rd & 1’s and a 3rd & 2. I’ll bet the Dolphins won’t suffer a strip-sack-6 every week going forward, and a 0% third down conversion rate will see some positive regression.

Outside of six massively negative mistakes, the Dolphins dropback passing game generated 10.7 expected points, which ranks in the 70th percentile for quarterback starts this season. Obviously any quarterback’s efficiency will greatly improve if you remove the biggest negatives, but I’d find it more worrying if the Dolphins offense had stagnated in the face of stronger competition. Fixing an offense that can’t do anything is more difficult than limiting mistakes. Tagovailoa probably isn’t as good as his efficiency numbers this season (still No. 1), but we don’t have new evidence that the Dolphins offense can be stopped, as much as stop itself.

Detroit Lions: Your 2023 NFC North Champs?

#RestoreTheRoar was all the rage among the NFL analyst cool kids this offseason, but after a 1-6 start, including losses by a combined 53-6 in back-to-back games, most moved on to a new crush of the early NFL season.

Now the roar is really back, with the Lions winning four of the last five, the only loss a three-point, nail-biting affair against the vaunted Bills. In Week 13, the Lions led all teams in success rate (59%), offensive EPA (+28) and held a Jaguars offensive coming off of one of its best games to only 14 points.

The future is bright in Motor City. The Lions currently hold four picks in the first two rounds of the 2023 draft, including the first rounder of a Rams franchise that has lost six straight games and is currently positioned at No. 4 overall. The Lions should have a strong opportunity in April to add a top quarterback prospect to an offense that will have a healthy Jameson Williams and bring back legitimate stars like Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Even if the Vikings retain Kirk Cousins, we shouldn’t expect them to repeat their fluky 2022 record, the Packers are reeling and the Bears are probably more than a year away. Now’s the time to jump on a roomy Lions bandwagon, before Dan Campbell and Co. become the trendy thing again next offseason.

Minnesota Vikings: We’re Frauds. Who Cares? We’re Going to the Dance

Once again, the Vikings have defied the Analytical Gods and pulled off an unlikely victory. The 10-2 Vikings would be 4-8 this season going by the weekly adjusted scores (I know, no one cares). It’s not that the Vikings are a bad team, they’re a middling one (18th in offensive efficiency, 15th defensive).

The Vikings had a slightly lower success rate (% of plays with positive EPA) than the Jets on Sunday, but more than made up for it with the week’s biggest EPA advantage on high-leverage 3rd/4th downs (+15.5). The Vikings were 9-18 on third down and 1-1 on fourth, while the Jets only converted five of 21 late-down chances.

The Vikings are a lock for the playoffs, and are in strong contention for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Even if their team strength doesn’t match the record, you can’t ignore the strategic advantages the Vikings have in a weaker NFC playoff bracket, which puts them in the second tier of Super Bowl contenders, whether nerds like it or not.

Philadelphia Eagles: Don’t You Forget About Our Defense

We’ve heard a lot about Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown and the Eagles top-5 offense, but how about the other side of the ball? It hasn’t been the hardest schedule, but the Eagles defense has shown the ability to truly shutdown competent NFL offenses, just as they did to the Titans on Sunday.

The Titans 30% offensive success rate was the lowest of the week, and they were held to only 10 points despite not turning the ball over. The Titans averaged a lowly 3.9 yards per play, totaling 209 yards of offense. Ryan Tannehill was sacked six times on 31 dropbacks, which makes sustaining drives nearly impossible.

Nothing is perfect on either side of the ball for the Eagles, but we need to talk a bit more about how the defense is matching the offense’s strength and will be a problem for flawed NFC offenses in the playoffs. The Eagles took a step this week to separate themselves from the 49ers and Cowboys at the top of the NFC power rankings.

Cincinnati Bengals: Entering the AFC’s Top Tier

The Bengals have been darlings of the adjusted scores all season long, with a 9-2 adjusted record coming into this highly anticipated matchup with the Chiefs, who *only* had an 8-3 adjusted record. Ironically, the Chiefs slightly edged out the Bengals this week when you take the adjusted scores out to a tenth of a point. The larger takeaway still stands: the Bengals aren’t playing second tier to anyone this season.

The much maligned Zac Taylor hit the right notes, continuing to lean into the pass game (60% dropback rate) and adding roughly 2% win probability through fourth down decisions. Worryingly, but not unexpectedly, Andy Reid kicked multiple field goals when the numbers were recommending aggression, resulting in three total points on two drives in scoring position. The margins are slim at the top of the NFL, and, as of now, the Bengals have a coaching advantage tilting the odds.

The question all season in the AFC has been, “Who’s the conference’s third best team?” Perhaps, instead, the question should be whether a Bengals team that has fundamentally improved from last year’s Super Bowl squad should reside in the top tier, alongside the Bills and Chiefs.

Los Angeles Chargers: Are They Just Bad?

The Chargers fall to 6-6 with touchdown loss to the Raiders, and are now on the outside looking in for the AFC playoff race. We knew the Chargers defense was bad, ranking 27th in EPA per play coming into the game, but now the offense has to face major questions.

Despite massive advantages this week in turnover value and late-down success (+21 EPA), the Chargers couldn’t maintain steady success (41% rate), which was a staple of their low-aDOT passing offense. The Chargers are a mid-tier offense right now, meaning an offseason rework might be necessary to exploit the clear talent they have at the game’s most important position. Even if the Chargers sneak into the playoffs, their chance for success in a stacked AFC looks fleetingly small.

Dallas Cowboys: Well, That Escalated Quickly

The Cowboys slim, 21-19 lead going into the fourth quarter rapidly expanded with the help of four Colts turnovers in the final frame. The Cowboys 33-0 quarter was the thing of legends, or more likely that of nightmares for Colts’ interim head coach Jeff Saturday (“Get Up” was a controlled environment!).

There are obviously positives to take from any dominant win, but my focus is on the Cowboys’ thinner adjusted margin of victory: +9. A win is a win, but this was short of ideal at home against a weaker opponent. The Cowboys are still in the NFC’s top tier, but at the lower end when compared to the Eagles.

Coaching Decisions: GOAT and WOAT

#OurJets???

Long-suffering Jets fans have had a lot to be happy about this season, even logging an adjusted win in Week 13 (YEaH!). #TakeFlight and nerds haven’t always seen eye-to-eye, whether in regard to draft trades, picks or the legitimacy of the team’s early season success.

There’s always time to make amends, and I’ll start with a tip-of-the-cap to Robert Saleh’s decision-making on Sunday. The Jets didn’t get the W, but they were one bobbled end-zone incompletion away from taking the lead with less than two minutes remaining.

That failed fourth down attempt on the goal line wasn’t a great call - it was an obvious one trailing by five. But three strong fourth-down calls by Saleh earlier in the game showed the value of putting yourself in a position to win, not setting up a closer loss.

The Jets went-for-it on fourth down every time (3) the numbers showed they should have, netting 35% win probability with two massive conversions. Robert Saleh and Jets will be rewarded more often than not if he continues to make the right calls.

Browns Disappoint Despite the Win

There’s a laundry list of things to be critical of with the brain trust in Berea, and Kevin Stefanski added to the list on Sunday. Some will think we can dismiss fourth down mistakes when facing a dysfunctional Texans team that somehow surrendered 27 points without allowing a single offensive touchdown to its opponent.

The reality is that the Browns were *only* 7-point favorites going into the game, and there was plenty of uncertainty with Deshaun Watson stepping in after two-year absence. The Browns weren’t in a position to forfeit win probability, but that’s exactly what they did.

Stefanski chose to kick/punt on all four times the numbers showed at least a 1% win probability gain when being aggressive. In fact the 10% win probability loss the Browns suffered on those four decisions was more than double that of any other team in Week 13.

Hanging Onions: Mike McDaniel Reaching God-Tier

The Dolphins lost the game on Sunday, but their nerd-aesthetic coach Mike McDaniel officially won the hearts of analytics worshippers across the land. Down by fewer than seven points with 10 minutes remaining, McDaniel took the strong win probability gain (+3.7%) available to his team by going for it on 4th & 1 from the Dolphins 19 yard line.

This decision was the perfect combination of unconventional and highly beneficial. You’d be laughed out of most coaching rooms suggesting going for a decently long one yard inside your own 20. But McDaniel doesn’t play by the rules, he makes his own. The Dolphins eventually stalled on the drive after failing to convert a much more conventional fourth down try on the 49ers’ side of the field. Let’s not let the end results dim the brightness of His light, our new God, Mike McDaniel.