Week 13 Monday Night Patriots-Giants: Advanced Review

Two young quarterbacks face off, with Drake Maye putting up another MVP-level performance to get the Patriots to 11-3

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

NE (-7) vs NYG

The New England Patriots jumped out to an early 17-0 lead, scoring on their two first possessions and mixing in a punt-return touchdown all in the first quarter. While the New York Giants got on the scoreboard with a touchdown after, the rest of the second quarter extended the Patriots lead to 30-7, essentially ending the game at halftime, with the Patriots estimated to have a 98% win probability.

The positive from this game for the Giants is that the team offensive success rates were relatively close, with the Patriots juicing their EPA efficiency to the 77th percentile with more explosive plays, including a beautifully placed 33-yard touchdown reception for Kyle Williams and a 22-yard touchdown run by Devin Singletary on 3rd & 6.