Week 13 MNF, Jaguars-Bengals: Advanced Review

Jake Browning steals a game in Jacksonville, with Trevor Lawrence playing extremely well before injury

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

JAX-CIN

2024 quarterback controversy in Cincinnati? I jest, but to say Jake Browning has looked competent with the Bengals in his two starts is probably an understatement. I’ll have more on his (very strong) numbers below, but the overarching story is that he led the Bengals to a 3-point overtime victory against the previously 7-3 Jaguars on the road.

According to the adjusted scores, it wasn’t a lucky victory. The Bengals offense was highly efficiency on a play-by-play basis (50.7% success rate), lost the turnover advantage, but were able to better convert on high-leverage late downs.

Both teams were efficient dropping back to pass and on the ground, though the Jaguars rushing EPA was entirely driven by two Trevor Lawrence short conversions, one on 4th & 2 from the Bengals 6 yard-line, the other a touchdown on 4th & Goal from the 1. The Bengals rushing efficiency was highly influenced by two Joe Mixon touchdowns from the 6 and 2 yard-lines, plus a 31-yard carry from Chase Brown.

The biggest play of the game in expected points and win probability was a 76-yard touchdown for Ja’Marr Chase, which wasn’t perfect placed by Browning, but go0d enough for the physical Chase to make the catch, shrug off the defender and take it another 50 yards for the score.

The next highest impact play was an absolutely awful trick-play pass by wide receiver Tyler Boyd that went directly to Josh Allen, costing 6.5 expected points coming on the first play of the drive.

Browning’s +24.6 EPA was higher than that in any Joe Burrow start this season, and his +0.55 EPA per play was also the top mark for a Bengals quarterback in 2023. Browning didn’t often stretch the field with a 4.5-yard aDOT, but his 86% completion percentage puts his accuracy at 19.9% over a high expectation. Browning didn’t turn the ball over and only took two sacks. He even added a little juice on the ground, with a 1-yard touchdown plunge and 21-yard scramble on 3rd & 1 near midfield.

Even at 6-6 I don’t think there’s a realistic chance the Bengals can make the playoffs, especially considering their weakness on defense. But the Bengals have probably found their backup, which is an important position generally, and even more so with Burrow’s injury history.

Lawrence was excellent before leaving the game with an ankle injury in the fourth quarter, and C.J. Beathard was capable in relief. The No. 1 seed is likely out of reach now, and especially so if Lawrence misses time. But the Jags are locked into the playoffs, meaning Lawrence can take some time to recover without drastically lowering the Jags ability to make a playoff run.