Week 13 Late Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations & commentary for Seahawks-Vikings, Chargers-Raiders & Steelers-Bills

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

SEA (-12.5) vs MIN

Things went predictably poorly for the Minnesota Vikings offense with 24-year-old rookie Max Brosmer making his first start. The Seattle Seahawks defense feasted, holding the Vikings to the lowest success rate of the season (20%) and collecting five turnovers (total 22 expected points).

A relatively mundane performance from the high-flying Seahawks offense kept the game from being a record-setting blowout. The Seahawks posted a mediocre 45% success rate, gave away two of their own turnovers and only averaged 3.5 yards per play.