Week 13 Black Friday Chiefs-Raiders: Advanced Review

The Chiefs get away with it, once again, blowing a big lead and relying on their opponent to implode

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

KC (-13.5) vs LV

Each week the Kansas City Chiefs try harder to give away games and each week their opponent comes up with a new way to refuse taking it. The Las Vegas Raiders fumbled the ball away on their final snap, already within field-goal range and down by only two points.

The adjusted scores agree that the Chiefs were lucky to win this one, making the Raiders the significantly better team by a four-point differential. The Raiders had a better offensive success rate, but the Chiefs leveraged late-down, special teams and penalty advantages to come out on top.

The Raiders were only 3-for-12 on third down conversions (-9.0 EPA) and failed on 4th & 1 at the KC 20 yard-line (-3.9). The Chiefs converted 7-of-16 third downs, gaining +3.1 EPA. While not easy kicks, three missed field goals for Daniel Carlson cost the Raiders 8.3 expected points, while one missed kick from the Chiefs’ Matthew Wright only cost them 1.2 expected points (59-yarder). The Raiders had 101 yards lost to penalties, versus 40 for the Chiefs.