Week 12 TNF Browns-Steelers: Advanced Review
The Browns win in heavy snow, giving Jameis Winston the chance to almost lose and then win the game
The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
Find previous advanced reviews here
** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
CLE vs PIT (-3.5)
Perhaps the Pittsburgh Steelers aren’t one of the best teams in the NFL, as their pre-game record would suggest and many of their fans would have attested to. Earlier this week, I gently mentioned that the Steelers were fortunate to win three of the games during their previously 4-0 Russell Wilson era, and the fan reaction was righteous indignation.
Some of those same fans assume that the pushback I receive will have me reconsider my views, but they don’t understand how many times I’ve seen this rodeo before: a team with an inflated record thinks they’re better than they are and then proceeds to lose to a team with a horrible record. I would have reconsidered my Steelers power ranking at 13th best NFL team if the markets had significantly disagreed with assessment, but those with money at risk had the Steelers one slot lower in the NFL pecking order.
This snow-filled game finished roughly where the fundamentals-based adjusted scores thought it should have, but it was a back-and-forth affair to get there. The Cleveland Browns were 9% better offensively from a success rate standpoint, but the overall EPA efficiency numbers were roughly equal between the teams, with the Steelers outperforming on dropbacks, though doing it at a much lower volume. In the snowy conditions, the Steelers split their runs and passes nearly 50/50, despite trailing for most of the game. The Browns, on the other hand, continued to let Jameis Winston lean into the pass (56% of plays), despite having the lead.
The Browns willingness to continue passing almost led to their demise, with the most impactful play in terms of expected points lost (-4.6) being a Winston strip-sack fumble, coming on 2nd & 9 with seven minutes left and up by five points. The Browns didn’t run the ball well from a YPC perspective, with Nick Chubb averaging 3.0 YPC. But they were good in terms of EPA on the ground, mostly due to going 2-for-2 on 4th & 1 and other short-yardage conversions.
The Browns benefited from going 4-for-4 overall on fourth downs (+9.5 EPA), versus 1-for-3 for the Steelers (-4). But this was mostly offsetting poor performance for the Browns on third downs, where there Browns went 1-for-10 (-9.1) and the Steelers were 7-for-16 (+9.4).
It was the Steelers ground game that really let them down, with only a 30% success rate and generating -0.31 EPA per designed run (3.5 YPC). That number doesn’t include any turnovers, driven by two crushing fourth down failures on fourth downs (-6.2 EPA).
Russell Wilson significantly outplayed Jameis Winston by the number, but didn’t have more opportunities to throw, even with the Steelers trailing and running more total plays. Wilson’s numbers were hurt by a strip-sack fumble, and his insane +23.7% CPOE is a bit inflated with lots of underneath throws completed, plus a couple long shots. Wilson wasn’t consistently attacking the mid-range passes that could have boosted his success rate.
The Steelers are still fairly well locked into the playoffs, and the reverse for the Browns. This loss will have more of a practical effect on the Steelers by putting their division title at risk, with a rematch at the Baltimore Ravens coming in a few weeks. The Steelers have a one-game lead and the mini-tiebreaker over the Ravens right now, but have one of the most difficult remaining schedules (2x CIN, KC, PHI, BAL, CLE). The betting markets have the Ravens as very slight favorites to win the division.
