Week 12 Sunday Night Rams-Buccaneers: Advanced Review

The Rams take a big step towards the No. 1 seed, while the Bucs season rests on the results of a Baker Mayfield MRI

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

LA (-7) vs TB

It was close to the worst possible outcome for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers: a crushing loss combined with a shoulder injury for their quarterback Baker Mayfield. There’s an MRI scheduled for Monday to determine the extent of the injury, with no doubts about the level of beatdown the Bucs took on Sunday night.

The fact that the adjusted scores came anywhere close to matching the actual point differential (18 versus 27) shows the dominance of the victory. The Bucs did have some fluky plays go against them, but the Rams offense effectively shut down in the final two quarters with a 31-7 halftime lead that put them above a 99% win probability.