Unexpected Points

Unexpected Points

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Unexpected Points
Week 12 SNF Rams-Eagles: Advanced Review
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Week 12 SNF Rams-Eagles: Advanced Review

Another outstanding game for Saquon Barkley and the Eagles, who now are contenders for the No. 1 seed in the NFC

Kevin Cole's avatar
Kevin Cole
Nov 25, 2024
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Unexpected Points
Unexpected Points
Week 12 SNF Rams-Eagles: Advanced Review
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Saquon Barkley's career takes a giant turn as Eagles' MVP - Los Angeles  Times

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

  • “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

  • “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

  • “H & A” - Home or away team

LA vs PHI (-3)

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