Week 12, SNF Chargers-Ravens: Advanced Review
The Ravens defense and running game win another game, while the Chargers playoff chances are almost gone
The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
Find previous advanced reviews here
** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
LAC vs BAL
Each week the Ravens take another step into the realm of teams with defenses we can be confident are actually really good, this Sunday holding the Chargers offense to, by far, their worst passing and overall efficiency game. The default assumption for defensive performance is that it primarily reflects the combination of quarterbacks faced, more than how the defense would affect any offense.
Going into this game, Justin Herbert was sixth in EPA per play on the season, and was coming off of his best and fourth best efficiency games in Weeks 10 & 11. The Chargers dropback efficiency was only in the third percentile last night (-0.30 EPA per play), and they could sustain success passing or running the ball.
The Chargers offensive woes (or the Ravens defensive triumph) is a bit overstated by the numbers, as the Bolts had three somewhat unfortunate turnovers: two receiver fumbles (typically only happen at a 1% rate) and a strip sack. The Ravens were fortunate to recover all four fumbles in the game, three lost by the Chargers and one by Lamar Jackson.
The Ravens offense had a decent success rate, but only produced average efficiency, driven by a 37-yard rushing touchdown by wide receiver Zay Flowers (+4.5 EPA). Their three other biggest EPA gains on offense were all rushing plays: a 4th & 1 conversion by Gus Edwards, an 18-yard gain for Justice Hill on 3rd & 2 and a 29-yard gain on 2nd & 2 by Keaton Mitchell. Removing quarterback runs, the Ravens rushed for 158 yards on 24 carries (6.6 YPC).
Even removing the two receiver fumbles and strip-sack, the Chargers passing offense and Herbert were still bad, unable to generate positive EPA on pass attempts. Herbert’s newfound rushing volume reflects some of the desperation in the Chargers passing offense. Herbert has 10 scrambles and a designed run over the last two games, but didn’t add any EPA value on the ground in four scrambles last night. The Chargers now have an implied probability to make the playoffs at less than 10%.
The same was the case for Jackson and the Ravens passing offense, but it didn’t matter with the way their defense and rushing attack performed. Jackson didn’t even add value on the ground, but still got “MVP!” chants after the game. It’s noteworthy to contrast the perception of Jackson to Josh Allen, with the latter vastly outperforming in individual stats and value added.
