Week 12 NFL Power Rankings

The Jags are moving up, but still below the truly competitive tier for a Super Bowl. 49ers holding tight at No. 1

You notice that some of the rankings shifts and movements in power rating don’t correspond exactly with intuition based solely on results. The numbers still use some 2022 data, and prior weeks are having their effect sizes decayed, which can cause slight adjustments that look big. When lots of teams are bunched up in the middle and bottom of the NFL, even a marginal change in power rating can move a team 3-6 spots.

* The detailed information for power rankings are on the paid subscriber Google sheet (along with other site metrics). You can find previous Power Rankings write-ups on the landing page.

WHAT WE’VE LEARNED IN 2023

First let’s look at the team offensive and defensive efficiencies so far in 2023, using my adjusted-score methodology to measure performance, and factoring in strength of schedule.

Not a lot of changes for the 2023 results by the adjusted scores. The San Francisco 49ers strong win slightly extended their lead over the field, while the Buffalo Bills jumped up to the second best team this season, despite their 6-5 record.

It’s worth noting how poor relative to prior years the Kansas City Chiefs offense continues to be. Now they’re not even a top-5 efficiency unit by the adjusted scores accounting for strength-of-schedule. They had been No. 1 every season but 2019 (Ravens) with Patrick Mahomes.

The Miami Dolphins offense has also struggled a lot the last several weeks, going somewhat under-the-radar as they continue to win games (7-3) and remaining solidly in the hunt for the No. 1 see in the AFC. The Dolphins were still the best offensive in the NFL by my numbers through Week 7, then have ticked down each week thereafter. Their defense has gotten better, but overall I’m slowly souring on their chances to make a significant playoff run without an assumed offensive advantage, especially if they have to go on the road to a cold-weather location.

THE 2023 POWER RANKINGS AND RATINGS

Below visualizes the NFL ranked by what I’m calling “Power Rating”, or the estimates of each team’s point differential playing a league-average opponent on a neutral field.