Week 12 Monday Night 49ers-Panthers: Advanced Review

The 49ers win despite Brock Purdy interceptions, with their defensive shutting down the Panthers

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

SF (-7.5) vs CAR

It was a turnover-fest on Monday night, with the San Francisco 49ers winning easily despite three Brock Purdy interceptions, while the Carolina Panthers gave the ball away twice. Because of the high-leverage nature of the Panthers giveaways, especially an interception on 1st & Goal from the 1 yard-line, -7.3 EPA, they only netted +1.9 EPA from their +1 turnover differential. In addition to the actual turnovers, the 49ers were lucky to have a teammate recover a Christian McCaffrey fumble, which hurt their adjusted score somewhat.

The 49ers projected as roughly six points better in the game by the adjusted scores model, with a decently wide margin in offensive success rates (46% to 38%) and the Panthers EPA efficiency (11th percentile) held down further by third-down conversion struggles (1-for-7) and turnovers.

The 49ers had countervailing forces holding down their EPA efficiency to the 45th percentile, with excellent late-down success offsetting their own turnovers. The 49ers went 7-for-13 on third down conversions (+1.4 EPA) and 2-for-2 on fourth down (+3.4 EPA).