Week 12 Late Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations & commentary for Cardinals-Jaguars, Raiders-Browns, Cowboys-Eagles & Saints-Falcons

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

ARI vs JAX (-2.5)

The overtime games continue, with the Jacksonville Jaguars winning by a field goal over the Arizona Cardinals. The Jaguars had a slightly better offensive success rate and were significantly more efficient than the Cardinals gaining yards (6.1 per play to 4.3), but they gave the ball away four times (-21.2 EPA) and struggled to keep drives going on late downs (3-for-11 on third, 0-for-1 on fourth).

These negatives enabled the Cardinals to run 16 more plays, and they converted seven more first downs than the Jaguars, though needing lots of steady gains and four conversions via penalty