Week 12 Early Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations & commentary for Ravens-Jets, Bears-Steelers, Bengals-Patriots, Lions-Giants, Packers-Vikings, Chiefs-Colts & Titans-Seahawks

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

BAL (-14) vs NYJ

Both teams struggled to score early with the New York Jets leading the Baltimore Ravens 7-3 at halftime, before the Ravens took the second-half kickoff down for a touchdown and never looked back. Both teams had poor offensive success rates, but the Ravens were able to juice EPA efficiency to near the 60th percentile with some big penalty gains, key fourth-down conversions and protecting the ball.

The Jets, on the other hand, lost a fumble (-4.6 EPA), failed on both fourth-down tries (-6.0) and were penalized defensively three times on 3rd & long to give up conversions (-8.2). The more random nature of these negatives is reflected in the mere one-point differential in adjusted scores.

It didn’t look great for Lamar Jackson, but those penalty gains and avoiding negatives (zero picks, one sack) buoyed his efficiency to +0.20 per play. Five straight wins puts the Ravens at 6-5, with winnable AFC North matchups against the Cincinnati Bengals (x2) and Pittsburgh Steelers next up on the schedule. The Steelers fell to 6-5 today.

CHI (-3) vs PIT

We have our first reversal of adjusted and actual scores, with the Pittsburgh Steelers ending up on the unlucky end, the opposite of what we saw a few times in the early season. The Chicago Bears got the three-point win despite an almost -10% differential in offensive success rate, and a lower EPA efficiency.