Week 12 Black Friday, Jets-Dolphins: Advanced Review

Dolphins dominate, while the Jets quarterback change didn't help, and their playoffs hopes are all but dead

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

NYJ vs MIA

The Jets offensive wasn’t godawful - as we often saw with Zach Wilson under center - but it wasn’t good either. With a 36% success rate and two big turnovers, the Jets registered under the 8th percentile in passing efficiency, and below the 5th percentile overall.

A pair of pick-6’s were the most impactful plays for the game. Tua Tagovalioa’s poor throw into the flat was taken back to the house for a 7.5 expected points loss, and Tim Boyle’s half-ending, hail-mary, 99-yard pick-6 cost the Jets 7.3 expected points. The later play was clearly more improbable, but it wouldn’t have made the difference in this lopsided game.

Both quarterbacks were dinking and dunking the ball, neither reaching five yards on their aDOTs. Despite the lack of downfield throws, both quarterbacks still had massive negatives in the game, even discounting the pick-6s. Each had a second interception, Tagovailoa lost a fumble (Boyle had two fumbles, but none lost) and Boyle was sacked seven times.

I’m not sure what Boyle had shown in practice to give him the starting nod over Trevor Siemian, but it hasn’t translated to the game. For what it’s worth, Siemian had started 30 games, including being named the Week 1 starter for the 2017 Broncos. Despite playing his last college game eight years ago, this was only Boyle’s fourth NFL start. Boyle threw twice as many picks as touchdowns in three starts with the Lions, and he somehow completed less than 50% of his college pass attempts.

I’m not sure which way the Jets turn now at quarterback, but it’s a moot point anyway. They’re 4-7 and half basically no chance at the playoffs. If I were a betting man, I’d guess this is the end of the line for Joe Douglas and Robert Saleh, unless de facto decision-maker Aaron Rodgers wants them back.

For the Dolphins, this week was a continuation of lower efficiency than their hot streak to start the season, but not bad considering the location and opponent. The Dolphins are currently holding the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but won’t be favored to take the conference over the Chiefs or Ravens. That said, they have a decent shot, but need to win the next few games (Commanders, Titans, Jets) before a tough season-ending stretch (Cowboys, Ravens, Bills).