Week 12 Bayesian Quarterback Rankings

Injuries and benchings cause major shifts, with MVP odds diverging further from pure efficiency numbers

For those of you looking for the Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency (AQE) numbers, it might be a week (or two) before I have the data to produce them. I’m figuring it all out now and appreciate the patience. I am producing a slimmed down version that I’m calling Luck-Adjusted Efficiency.

You can find all the previous weeks’ versions of the Bayesian Quarterback Rankings here.

COMPARING GRADES AND EFFICIENCY

PFF grades aren’t part of the analysis, but I find it helpful to make not of how they align with EPA per play, as many contextual elements of quarterback play (drops, interception-worthy throws, easier throws that become big gains, etc) are part of the grading methodology, but aren’t accounted for in EPA. At the same time, I think EPA does a vastly superior job of weighing what is and isn’t important in points-based results.

Brock Purdy continues to break the scale, but his grading keeps creeping up. He’s not far away from MVP odds leader Jalen Hurts in grading, which combined with Purdy’s efficiency might give him the better case as the most valuable player this year.

Outside of Purdy, it’s a compact grouping of quarterbacks with strong grading and efficiency, with Dak Prescott now leading all in PFF offensive grading, marginally higher than Josh Allen.

Baker Mayfield and Jordan Love are other quarterbacks that have produced materially above their grading, and I’ll discuss below why that’s the case.

WEEK 12 PROJECTED EFFICIENCY

These results are the ranking for the go-forward projections of quarterback efficiency this season. I also included the EPA per play rankings for each quarterback over the last five seasons (minimum 250 dropbacks in previous years, 120 in 2023) so you can see the evidence going into the projections.

Older data is decayed over time, so the 2023 EPA per play data matters more than those from pre-2020. That said, older data can’t be fully discounted, or else you miss bounce-back performers of great quarterback returning to form, like Aaron Rodgers in 2020 and 2021.

Lots of quarterbacks changes this week. Desmond Ridder will return as starter. Deshaun Watson’s season-ending shoulder injury was announced after I published last week’s write-up. Joe Burrow is also out for the year and replaced by Jake Browning. And the Jets are finally making a move to replace Zach Wilson, though his backup Tim Boyle doesn’t exactly have a great projection either. I’m going to keep Mac Jones in there for now, even though I’d bet the Patriots make a move.