Week 11 Thursday Night Patriots-Jets: Advanced Review
The New England Patriots run up the point differential late to get the win and cover over the New York Jets
The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
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** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
NE (-12.5) vs NYJ
A comfortable win at home for the New England Patriots over the New York Jets. The Patriots were probably a bit lucky to barely cover the 12.5-point spread, with only a 3.4% better offensive success rate (51.6% to 48.2%) and gaining just 1.1 more yards per play (5.4 to 4.3).
The Jets were within one score with 12 minutes remaining, then their offense stalled out with three unsuccessful drives - including a fumble lost and turnover on downs - that allowed the Patriots to run up the point differential. The Jets offense gave away multiple opportunities, including the late fumble costing them 5.4 expected points and the fourth down failure at 3.0 - two of the biggest impact plays of the game by EPA.
TreVeyon Henderson is going to show up in fantasy leagues as the winner of the game with three touchdowns scores. However, his output from value-add wasn’t great, generating a total of +0.5 EPA on 19 designed runs, which includes fairly big bonuses for getting into the end zone. The Patriots other five designed runs lost 3.3 expected points.
Drake Maye continues to impress with his box score output and advanced metrics. He’s brought back the deep passing game that had been almost entirely driven out of the NFL, averaging 11.7 air yards per target last night, and mostly gaining value through the air, not receiver YAC. It wasn’t the most productive passing night for Maye, but he juiced overall efficiency by avoiding turnovers and only taking one sack.
Justin Fields had an expected output, generating massive value on scrambles and designed runs, but not able to consistently affect the game through the air. Fields converted three first downs with his legs (+4.2 EPA) and ran for a 5-yard touchdown. But his 116 passing yards on 26 attempts (4.5 YPA) isn’t enough to generate high-level offensive scoring.
