Week 11 Sunday Night Eagles-Lions: Advanced Review

The Eagles continue to beat the best of the NFL in unimpressive fashion (I feel like I've written this exact subtitle before)

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

PHI (-2.5) vs DET

An offensive struggle-session for both teams ends in the Philadelphia Eagles taking down the Detroit Lions, which will prompt many in the media to place them ahead of the NFL power rankings. I doubt my team strength numbers will agree, with offensive performance being more important in projections, plus I’ll have more skepticism that the Eagles defense will be elite down the stretch, which is likely the default assumption for the crowd. This game wasn’t really a boost in projections for the winner’s offense, with both teams combining for 11 punts and six turnovers on downs.