Week 11 NFL Power Rankings

A new top-2 in the rankings, while the ranking continue to reflect the Eagles winning unimpressively

The Week 11 power rankings combine the initial, Week 1 power rankings I released and the evidence from four weeks of NFL football. The key in updating the rankings is knowing when to not overreact (Lions taking a shellacking in Green Bay) and when to be aggressively moving assumptions (maybe the Colts offense will be functional with a real NFL quarterback). Right now, the rankings incorporate roughly 90/10 mix of team strength based on this and last season’s performance.

For more info you can find the archive of previous Power Rankings posts, including the Week 1 rankings that detail much of the methodology of coming up with .

In this post, I’m going to walk through how my team-strength model views every team offensively and defensively for their 2025 performance going into Week 11, plus comparisons of my numbers to those derived by looking out over the next two weeks on the betting markets.

TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STRENGTH

*Downloadable power ratings/rankings available in the paid subscriber Google sheet.

After the Indianapolis Colts had broken out slightly from the pack last week, fantastic performances from the Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions reeled them back in. Plus, the Pittsburgh Steelers are not assessed as very strong competitors by my model, lowering the credit given to the Colts for their Week 10 win.

The New England Patriots are now officially in the top tier for 2025 performance, right on top of the Buffalo Bills and Green Bay Packers for adjusted offensive and defensive EPA per play. The Seattle Seahawks are a bit better defensively, and the Kansas City Chiefs remain in a similar position after their bye week.

I might as well skip right to the Philadelphia Eagles and how their 2025 performance by my model has them solidly in the second tier. On Monday night, they beat another top-tier team in the Packers, but my adjusted scores had them as slightly worse, heavily reliant on a couple big plays and some poor mistakes for their opponents.