Week 11, MNF Chiefs-Eagles: Advanced Review

The Chiefs let one slip away against the Eagles, the No. 1 seed now in doubt. While the Eagles are cruising to the top of the NFC

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

KC vs PHI

The Eagles pull out the victory in an offensive struggle for both teams in Kansas City. The adjusted scores had this game as roughly even, without factoring in some key drops that will be in the charting data that feeds into my Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency (AQE) metric, but aren’t available the morning after the game.

Both teams passed under expectation on a poor weather night, which worked well for the Chiefs relative to the average passing offensive, but +0.04 EPA per designed run wouldn’t make a higher-scoring offensive overall. The Eagles were more efficient running the ball (+0.14 per play), with the passing offense dragging down efficiency with the Eagles offense in total going 3-for-10 on third downs, losing 3.7 expected points on those tries.

The Chiefs big advantage on late-down conversions - a staple of their offensive success with Patrick Mahomes - was offset by two killer turnovers, both inside the red zone, coming on extremely favorable down/distance context: 1st & 10. The first was an interception a poor location throw from Mahomes that was situationally unnecessary to take any big risk with multiple downs left to get into the end zone (-5.6 EPA). The second was one of the flukiest plays in football: a post-catch receiver fumble (-4.9 EPA) by Travis Kelce, which even more costly than the expected points loss because the it would have set up 2nd & 6 from the 10 yard-line, fantastic positioning to get seven points.

The third most impactful play of the game was an interception on a miscommunication between Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown, which could have been a huge play, but only cost them 3.5 expected points netting out the 20 yards in field position on a longer throw.

The most impactful decision of the game was a truly awful fourth down call by Andy Reid to punt the ball up three points on the Eagles 39 yard-line with a little under nine minutes remaining. The nfl4thR model put the decision to go-for-it at only 1.3% win probability, but I think you can easily make the case the Chiefs have a better than assumed conversion probability (48%) with the best offensive at late-down conversions the past several years.

Plus, the optics were bad, with a drop on the previous play the only thing preventing an easy conversion, the punt going into the end zone (net 19 yards in field position gained), and the Eagles marching down the field to score a touchdown in seven plays that took only two minutes and 36 seconds. I get you “have confidence” in the defense after shutting down the Eagles most of the night, but you have to assume the Eagles offense isn’t going to be that bad out to infinite drives, and being willing to risk a shorter field also shows confidence in your defense.

I get it that an egregiously bad Marquez Valdez-Scantling drop a would-be 51-yard touchdown on the final drive was the defining play of the game, but the Chiefs could have effectively ended (or severely hurt) the Eagles chances by going for it and scoring a touchdown earlier. It was one of the many situations when a team chooses not to going for it in a higher conversion situation (4th & 3), only to have to try a much more difficult conversion later (4th & 25).

Both Mahomes and Hurts had slightly negative efficiency, and both saw their numbers negatively affected by receiver drops and miscommunications. I’d say Mahomes was the better of the two quarterbacks, with the Chiefs drops costing him somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 expected points.

These two quarterbacks were also at the top of MVP odds going into the game. Hurts is now at the top with the team win and a 9-1 record, even if he struggled. At 7-3, the Chiefs are now tied with the Jaguars and Dolphins and half-a-game behind the 8-3 Ravens. The No. 1 seed in the AFC is a bit dicey right now, though their schedule is fairly soft down the stretch, with the Bills the only winning team left on the calendar, plus a better-than-their-record Chargers team to end the season. Other than that, the Chiefs have the Raiders twice, the Packers, the Patriots and the Joe Burrow-less Bengals.