Week 11 Madrid & Early Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations & commentary for Dolphins-Commanders, Falcons-Panthers, Bills-Bucs, Jaguars-Chargers, Vikings-Bears, Giants-Packers, Steelers-Bengals & Titans-Texans

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

MIA (-2.5) vs WAS

The Miami Dolphins get the win in overtime versus the Washington Commanders in Madrid, Spain. The low final score didn’t reflect the underlying offensive metrics for both teams, as the Dolphins and Commanders posted respectable success rates (53% and 50%) and EPA efficiencies (45th and 63rd percentiles). Despite the game going to overtime, neither team had more than nine possessions.

Combined the teams went 1-for-8 turning red-zone opportunities into touchdowns and failed on 3-of-4 fourth down conversion attempts. The Commanders were also a bit unlucky to miss two field goal attempts (from 51 and 56 yards out) and lose a muffed punt (total -9.5 EPA).

Both quarterbacks had okay efficiency, with Tua Tagovailoa heavily reliant on receiver YAC to generate value. Marcus Mariota hasn’t been the reason the Commanders are struggling so much this year, but it will be tough to convince many of that after only putting up 13 points in this game.

ATL (-3.5) vs CAR

The Carolina Panthers won in overtime, though the adjusted scores viewed the Atlanta Falcons as the better team. The Falcons had a substantially better offensive success rate (51.5% to 40.0%), but suffered from disadvantages in turnovers (-5.5 EPA on a kick-return fumble) and late-down conversions, only going 4-for-11 on third down and the Panthers converting 3-for-5 fourth downs.