Week 11 Late Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations & commentary for Cardinals-49ers, Rams-Seahawks, Browns-Ravens & Broncos-Chiefs

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

ARI vs SF (-3.5)

Brock Purdy was back for the San Francisco 49ers and, not coincidentally, their offense was firing on all cylinders in their win over the Arizona Cardinals. The adjusted scores aren’t quite as divergent as the actual 19-point differential, mostly due to the outsized advantages the 49ers had in turnovers (+3, +14.1 EPA) and penalties/special teams (+18.8 EPA).

The Cardinals were continually shooting themselves in the foot, including an interception on 1st & 15 at the 49ers 27 yard-line that was returned 64 yards (-9.2 EPA), giving up a 98-yard opening kickoff return down to their own 1 yard-line (-5.5), a missed first-quarter field goal (-3.1). The Cardinals were flagged for 17 penalties totaling 130 yards, versus a single 15-yard penalty on the 49ers.

Interestingly, the 49ers weren’t particularly good converting on late downs (3-for-9 third down conversions), with their early down offense humming and lots of short fields to work with due to turnovers and special teams returns. The Cardinals shockingly outgained the 49ers by over 200 yards (488 to 281), and at a higher rate (6.9 per play to 5.4). But those numbers were highly influenced by strong offensive play for the Cardinals when the game was essentially out of reach, as the 49ers breached 99% win probability before the end of the third quarter, and the Cardinals gained nearly 200 yards on three fourth-quarter drives.