Week 11, Late Window: Advanced Reviews

Bills show who they really are, 49ers confirm top-team status, and the Seahawks see their playoff odds get a lot tighter

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

SF vs TB

Convincing win for the 49ers, though not as much when looking at the adjusted scores. Perhaps the model doesn’t account enough for the Bucs piling up positive plays down multiple scores, but the game had some hints of excitement down the stretch.