Week 10 TNF Ravens-Bengals: Advanced Review

The Bengals season comes down at a controversial finish and failed two-point conversion

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

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** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

BAL (-6) vs CIN

It will come as little consolation, but the adjusted scores saw the Cincinnati Bengals as slightly better in this game, though they lost by a single point to the Baltimore Ravens. A ton of focus after the game will fall on potentially missed calls on the failed 2-point conversion attempt with 38 seconds remaining. Two important pieces of context for those missed calls: a penalty on the play would only mean another try, not an automatic conversion, and the Ravens would have still had a decent amount of time to score with their own field goal at the end.

By the fundamentals of the game, the Bengals were ever so slightly better offensively in success rate (48% to 47%), and passed the ball at a significantly higher rate than expected. The combination of those two factors usually leads to more scoring, but not this game. Both teams put up outstanding numbers in the traditional box score, with the Bengals and Ravens gaining a total of 470 and 389 yards, respectively, and combining to score touchdowns on all seven of their red-zone possessions.

The Ravens had better efficiency dropping back to pass and on designed runs, but that was offset by massive disadvantage in penalties overall (-12.1 EPA). The Ravens allowed Bengals conversions on 4th & 2 and 3rd & 10 on defensive penalties, plus adding 15 yards on multiple plays due to roughing and facemask calls.

The Ravens had slightly better success rates in passing and running, but their mix of plays was more run-heavy, leading to a worse number overall. They drove better EPA efficiency by matching the Bengals with explosive plays, and the Bengals losing EPA offensively on a Chase Brown fumble (-4.8 EPA) and multiple Joe Burrow sacks. The Ravens didn’t turn the ball over or take any sacks.

Brown’s fumble was the turning point, with the Bengals up two touchdowns midway through the third quarter on a very favorable 2nd & 5. The Bengals’ pre-play win probability was at 87%, falling to under 50% early in the third quarter after two Ravens touchdowns. The highest impact play of the game in EPA (+7.1) and WPA (+34.2%) was Tylan Wallace’s tightrope-running, 84-yard touchdown at the beginning of the fourth quarter.

The individual effort of Ja’Marr Chase has to be highlighted. Chase’s box score was insane with 264 receiving yards and three touchdowns on 11 receptions. That translates to +24.5 EPA added for Bengals when he was targeted, the highest game total since Wes Welker’s +25.5 in Week 11 of 2011 (at the Bills with 16 receptions, 217 yards and two touchdowns).

Lamar Jackson had another outstanding game by the numbers, potentially jumping him above Jayden Daniels in adjusted efficiency post-Week 10, depending on what the latter does at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers this weekend. Once again, Jackson didn’t gain value by running the ball beyond the line of scrimmage, added just 1.5 expected points on runs and scrambles. He also limited mistakes to zero: (turnover and no sacks), juicing efficiency further.

Joe Burrow also had an excellent game, but his numbers are weakened a bit by a few sacks and fourth down conversion failures. Burrow might even look better on the week than Jackson once my adjustments take hold, as he generated a substantially higher proportion of his value through air yards rather than YAC. Burrow also posted a +12.8% completion percentage above expectation, bolstering his strong performance.

Where does this leave the Bengals? It’s not good. They would have substantially bolstered their playoff odds with a when, instead falling to an implied 40% post-game. Now, they were 6-point underdogs, so a high likelihood of loss was factored into their pre-game roughly 50/50 playoff odds. They’re 4-6 and face the Chargers and Steelers the next two weeks, then the Dak-less Cowboys and Titans the next two. A sweep of those four games isn’t necessary, but fewer than three wins basically spells the end of their season.