Week 10, TNF Bears-Panthers: Advanced Review
Week 10, TNF Bears-Panthers: Advanced Review
Continued struggles for No. 1 pick Bryce Young in primetime, with the Bears creeping closer to the 2024 top selection via their opponents
The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
Find previous advanced reviews here
** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
CHI vs CAR
This was the most anticipated matchup for observers focused on what will impact the NFL for the next several years: which team will get the No. 1 pick and Caleb Williams (or maybe Drake Maye) in the 2024 NFL draft.
The now 1-8 Panthers have the same record as the Cardinals, a team that should take themselves out of contention for the worst record with the return of capable quarterback play in the form of Kyler Murray. The Bears own both their own and the Panthers first round pick, and their own record going into the game (2-7) was bad enough to give either pick a good shot at No. 1.
There’s probably a galaxy brain take on how the Bears could have lost this game, then counted on the Panthers continuing to be awful and somehow maximized their chances of getting the first and second picks, and the bounty in trade markets for the latter. The simplest route to franchise stability for the Bears was to win and send the Panthers down further, which is just what happened.
For more details on different simulation-based projections for the No. 1 pick, check out this article by Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Eisenberg. I exchanged some emails with Jeff on the topic, but didn’t have the window to talk and directed him elsewhere, and the opinions he got from my former colleagues PFF’s Timo Riske and Sumer Sports’ Eric Eager matched my general take: the Bears have every reason to want to win the game. With last night’s win, PFF and Sumer Sports project the Bears probability of earning the No. 1 pick at 46% and 39%, respectively.
To the actual game, it was a struggle for both offenses, though much more so for the Panthers. The Panthers 27% offensive success rate was the sixth lowest of any offense this season (of 274), and their EPA per play was in the 22nd percentile (-0.15). The context for these numbers was that the Panthers were facing a Bears defense that ranked in the bottom-5 for opponent EPA and bottom-12 for opponent success rate going into the game. Perhaps the trade-deadline addition of Montez Sweat made that big of a difference (three QB hits), but more like it’s another poor outing for a Panthers offense that hasn’t made any positive strides this season.
The biggest positive play for the Panthers was a 79-yard punt return touchdown by Ihmir Smith-Marsette (5.4 EPA), one of the flukier plays in the NFL. Eddy Pineiro’s late miss on a potential game-tying, 59-yard field goal was the most consequential play in win probability, with the nflfastR fourth down models giving him a 38% chance of success, based on historical NFL averages.
By the looks of the actual kick coming woefully short, that high of a make estimate was possibly overstated. Even so, the model recommended going for it (+1.2% win probability), not only to set up an easier field goal or touchdown, but to possibly kill additional clock, instead giving the ball back in a tie game with a health 1:35 or so remaining. Clock considerations are one of the missing pieces for intuition-based takes for fourth downs.
The headline value numbers for Bryce Young aren’t awful, with a slightly negative average of -0.07 EPA per play, but I think the game was worse digging under the hood. The Panthers dropback passing game had a relatively worse success rate (32%) versus efficiency, mainly due to boosts Young received from fourth down success.
Young was 3-for-3 converting on fourth downs (two passing, one scramble), and those three plays added a combined 8.2 expected points. On Young’s 44 other plays, he lost 11.6 expected points. We also get a strong hint of Young’s lack of consistency moving the ball from his -8% completion percentage over expectation, and his pass map shows a lot of underneath completions, going four of only 10 attempts beyond 10 yards downfield.
Tyson Bagent likely isn’t the answer for the Bears, but taking zero negatives (sacks, INTs, fumbles) can give a decent floor for even the worst passer. Justin Fields should return from a dislocated thumb injury in the next few weeks.
