Week 10 Thursday Night Broncos-Raiders: Advanced Review
The Broncos get an ugly win at home over the Raiders, now the first team to hit eight wins this season
The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
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** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
DEN (-9.5) vs LV
I guess the positive spin on this contest was the play of both defenses, making their opposing units struggle in a 10-7 win for the Denver Broncos over the Las Vegas Raiders. Both teams had success rates in around 35%, and their EPA efficiencies were relatively worse, with three total turnovers and horrendous third-down conversions rates (combined 9-for-30) driving down point generation.
The Broncos defense ranks third in opponent EPA per play (-0.09), only slightly behind the Los Angeles Rams (-0.12) and Houston Texans (-0.11).
It ended up not coming back to bite them, but it’s worth noting that the Broncos passed up four opportunities to try for fourth-down conversions when the nflverse model projected a 1% or greater win probability gain for doing so. Although two of those chances were at 4th & 1 deep inside their own territory, perhaps good choices to punt when your opposition could move the ball at all.
In no surprise for a game with so little scoring, eight of the top-10 most impactful value plays were negative, including a 48-yard missed field goal and punt block that totaled -5.9 EPA for the Raiders.
Bad value and accuracy numbers for both quarterbacks in this game. Bo Nix limited negatives a bit more overall, despite throwing two interceptions. Geno Smith only threw one pick, but took six costly sacks, driving his efficiency down to what should end up one of the lowest numbers of the week.
Among 30 quarterbacks with at least 175 dropbacks this season, Smith now ranks second-to-last in EPA per play, ahead of only rookie Cam Ward.
