Week 10, SNF Raiders-Jets: Advanced Review

The Raiders defense hold down the very suppressible Jets offense

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

LV vs NYJ

I’ll take the role of broken record by saying that the Zach Wilson charade has to stop. I’ve said it from the week after Aaron Rodgers tore his achilles: The Jets need a different option to give their talented receivers and elite defense a chance to make a playoff run. The team’s ability to keep games close and win despite of Wilson has been more of a curse than blessing, when an early blowout loss could have led to a change earlier that would pay dividends now.

In offensive EPA per play, the Jets weekly results have exceed the 50th percentile (median) once: 43rd (Week 1), 2nd, 5th, 52nd (Week 4 vs the Chiefs), 46th, 30th, 4th, 5th, and 16th last night. That’s one above average offensive game for the Jets with Wilson versus four in the 5th percentile of worse.

It’s not that the Raiders were any better at 12th percentile offensive efficiency. In fact, the adjusted scores show them as being a little lucky to win the game that was basically fundamentally a draw.

The Raiders leveraged huge penalty and special advantages (+8.1 expected points), with the Jets penalized eight times for 83 yards to the Raiders at only three for 25. One holding call on the Jets offensive negated a 3-yard touchdown for Breece Hall (drive ended in a field goal), and another chop block call wiped out a 3rd & 8 conversion.

Wilson’s late, fourth-quarter interception at the was the most impactful play in terms of win probability (-44%, from Jets at 52% to 4%) and expected points (-5.7 EPA). It was particularly costly in expected points because of the favorable starting position of the play: 2nd & 8 at the Raiders 20 yard-line. But the Raiders kept the Jets in the game with their own costly giveaways.

Aidan O’Connell has won the last couple games, but he certainly didn’t have a winning performance in this one. At -0.37 EPA per play, it was below the 10th percentile level efficiency, and he was also inaccurate with an aDOT-adjusted completion rate 9% below expectation.

Wilson will be under the radar this week, but this was actually one of his better efficiency performances. That said, slightly negative EPA being relatively good is a big problem at quarterback. No one has ever said that Wilson doesn’t have talent, and his scrambling ability netted the a solid Jets +2.9 EPA. The bigger problem in this game was that Breece Hall and the rushing attack were awful (-8.7 EPA for Hall on 13 designed runs for 28 yards).

At 4-5, the Jets now have implied probability based on betting odds of 17.5% to make the playoffs, with division foes in the Bills and Dolphins next on the schedule.