Week 10 NFL Power Rankings

A new team jumps to the top of the rankings, but there's still a big-4 above the rest

For more info you can find the archive of previous Power Rankings posts, including the initial offseason rankings that detail much of the methodology of coming up with the Week 1 rankings, which only carry roughly 5% weight at this point in the season.

TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STRENGTH

*Downloadable power ratings/rankings available in the paid subscriber Google sheet.

I revamped this plot below to only factor in 2024 numbers. It’s a clearer delineation of how teams have performed so far this year, knowing that I also add in some 2023 priors and injury adjustments, primarily at quarterback.

In Week 9, the Baltimore Ravens extended their lead in offensive strength, more than offsetting some weakness defensively vis-a-vis other top teams. The reality still holds that a number of teams remain in the mix for being the top team at the end of the season.

The Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions are more balanced, with top-3 offenses and above-average defenses by 20234 performances. The Kansas City Chiefs are a little further down offensively, but their defense is strong. Patrick Mahomes has been looking a little more like his consistently NFL-leading efficiency leader self in recent weeks, with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins giving him a reliable option outside of Travis Kelce.

Should we consider the Washington Commanders and the Minnesota Vikings also in the top tier of NFL teams? I’m not convinced, but the numbers have been that good this year, with the Commanders having one of the best NFL offenses, and the Vikings with the second-best defense. Within a couple of weeks of good play, the San Francisco 49ers, Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles can jump into the top tier.

My numbers have always been a bit low on the Houston Texans and Seattle Seahawks than the markets, and those two teams have been some of the biggest fallers over the last few weeks.

UNEXPECTED POINTS POWER RANKINGS