Week 10 Monday Night Packers-Eagles: Advanced Review

Both defenses held down their opposing units, but a couple big plays by the Eagles offense pushed them over the top

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

GB (-1.5) vs PHI

According to the adjusted scores, the Philadelphia Eagles were a bit lucky to get the win at the Green Bay Packers. It was a fairly even game, but the Packers had a marginally better offensive success rate (38% to 31%), but a couple big plays for the Eagles made the difference: a 41-yard completion to Saquon Barkley on 3rd & 7 (+4.0 EPA) and a 36-yard touchdown to DeVonta Smith (+3.5). The most valuable play the Packers offense made was a 4th & 1 conversion at only +2.1 EPA.